Natchitoches, Louisianna 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

398
FXUS64 KSHV 251646
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1146 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 136 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

 - Severe weather round two is expected late Saturday afternoon
   through Sunday morning with this next round potentially more
   impactful than Friday night`s event.

 - The area of greatest concern with this next round is again
   along and north of I-30 where an Enhanced to Moderate Risk is
   highlighted for the threat of significant hail and tornadoes.

 - The forecast will remain largely unsettled into next week, but
   we may see a brief lull in convection early in the week before
   rain chances increase once again by mid to late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1146 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Recent hi-rees model guidance has the main round of convective
initiation occurring along an OK warm front this evening,
northwest of McCurtain Co, OK. These storms are expected to move
southeastward into the Ark-La-Tx this evening and continue through
the overnight hours. An increasingly unstable environment will be
building this afternoon, which increases the concern for severe
weather impacts, especially in our northwest zones. Large hail
(possibly exceeding 3 inches), damaging wind gusts, and some
strong tornadoes will all be possible for the region. SPC`s
outlook highlights our northwestern zones as being the highest
risk for severe hazards due to the favorable environment and the
storm mode leaning toward supercells. The storms are expected to
morph into more of a QLCS as it moves into Deep East TX, northwest
LA, and southern AR later in the night with the loss of daytime
heating. A marginal risk still exists for much of these areas due
to the risk of severe wind gusts that this line could still be
capable of. Due to this event occurring in the evening and
overnight hours, be sure you have multiple ways to receive weather
information and be woken up, if necessary.

There may still be some lingering convection from Saturday night
that bleeds into Sunday morning and clear by midday. The sfc
southerly flow that has been funneling in moisture over recent
days will continue to help keep us warm, with many places seeing
afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s for the first half of the
work week.

A continuously active pattern will keep rain chances in the
forecast through the end of the week. SPC has a portion of the
forecast area included in 3 of the next 4 outlooks, highlighting
the potential for more severe weather to be included with the
additional rainfall. More detail will come with future forecasts,
but expect a warm and rainy next few days. The added rain will
hopefully work to help the drought conditions across the region
and bring high temperatures back into the 70s by the end of the
week.

57

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Post frontal low ceilings and fog are hampering a few airports
attm including TXK and ELD. Elsewhere, cirrus blowoff from earlier
convection is trying to exit our airspace to the east and those
VFR airports may see IFR and/or MVFR ceilings return over the next
hour or two before we see this low cloud and VSBY restrictions mix
out by late morning into the afternoon hours. The big show is
still on tap for late this evening and overnight as we should see
thunderstorms redevelop as the frontal boundary which backdoored
itself into our region last night returns back to the north as a
warm front. Tried to handle this by VCTS in the late evening and
overnight hours across most terminals with the exception of the
LFK terminal who likely will not see convection until just beyond
this TAF cycle.

13

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 136 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Spotter activation will likely be needed late Saturday afternoon
through Saturday night and early Sunday for the threat of severe
thunderstorms.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  67  88  71 /  10  60  30  10
MLU  86  65  88  69 /  30  50  50  20
DEQ  79  61  82  66 /  20  80  30  20
TXK  84  66  86  70 /  20  70  30  20
ELD  81  61  85  66 /  20  70  50  20
TYR  88  69  88  72 /  10  40  10  10
GGG  88  68  88  71 /  20  50  20  10
LFK  90  69  90  71 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...13