Natchitoches, Louisianna 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

366
FXUS64 KSHV 061654
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1154 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

 - Afternoon thunderstorm chances will pick back up today,
   generally keeping east of the I-49 corridor, beginning a rinse
   and repeat pattern which looks to continue throughout this
   forecast period.

 - Storms may increase from the north during the middle of the
   week as a trough swings southward.

 - Highs in the 90s and lows in the 70s will continue throughout,
   with a possible warming trend towards the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1048 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

The typical summer weather will continue through this week: hot
temperatures with scattered afternoon convection that will
diminish through the evening. This will be the case tonight, with
temperatures dropping into the 70s once the convection dies off.
High temperatures tomorrow are expected to make it into the mid
90s along with plenty of humidity that will make apparent
temperatures in the triple digits possible. I will still hold off
on issuing any heat products, as current estimates have us just
shy of criteria for the next few days.

The region of high pressure located in northwest Mexico and
parts of the Desert Southwest will continue to intensify and help
keep areas of East Texas dry tomorrow. Recent runs of the NBM
have more widespread PoPs back in the forecast earlier than
previously shown, beginning on Tuesday instead of Wednesday. This
is due to the high pressure beginning the process of retrograding
to the west, which will open East Texas to more of the diurnal
and sea- breeze showers that other areas of the region have seen
recently. Recent GFS runs have also had that shortwave trough that
previously was centered over IA/MO moving further south on
Tuesday evening. This system could be enough forcing to take
advantage of the warm, moist environment and keep rain continuing
for our north and eastern zones through the night on Tuesday into
Wednesday morning. This would depend, however on the high pressure
out west to retrograde far enough for the trough to progress far
enough south for the Ark-La-Tx to see any impacts. As such, this
part of the forecast is up in the air depending on how upper-level
forcing behave.

Thursday will return to the previously defined normal, with
afternoon thunderstorms favoring areas east of I-49. The western
high seems to reintensify by the weekend, which will prevent
afternoon showers in the I-20 corridor region generally west of
Ruston, LA. Temperatures for the latter half of this week seem to
be favoring the mid-upper 90s, with overnight lows in the mid to
upper 70s. /57/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1146 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

VFR conditions to prevail across area terminals through the
forecast package ending 07/18Z. Light southeast winds today to
become variable to near calm overnight. Otherwise, southwest
winds to increase to near 6 knots on Monday. /05/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  77  95  76  93 /  10  40  20  60
MLU  74  96  74  94 /   0  40  10  60
DEQ  71  93  71  91 /   0  30  10  50
TXK  76  96  74  94 /  10  30  10  50
ELD  73  96  72  93 /  10  40  20  60
TYR  74  93  74  91 /   0  20   0  40
GGG  74  94  74  92 /   0  30  10  50
LFK  73  94  74  93 /  10  30  10  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...05