Natchitoches, Louisianna 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

599
FXUS64 KSHV 251819
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
119 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

 - A Heat Advisory remains in effect across the entire Four State
   Region through 7 PM CDT this evening.

 - Rain chances remain elevated through Saturday afternoon as a
   weak disturbance works across the Gulf.

 - Heat impacts return next week as highs near the triple digits.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Among the field of cumulus present on visible satellite, the KSHV
radar is gradually picking up on reflectivity returns across
Louisiana and Arkansas. Morning hi-res and CAMs have been
consistent with the theme for afternoon showers and storms across
the region citing the influence of a tropical airmass linked to
a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms traversing
the northern Gulf. Though no tropical development is expected,
the vicinity airmass will continue to increase local PWATs
through the start of the weekend, thus helping to support showers
and storms again for Saturday.

Excessive rainfall outlooks through Saturday do maintain a
Marginal Risk extending north to the I-30 corridor. Though
widespread flood concerns are not anticipated, PWAT values in
excess of 2" through the weekend will allow for rain rates within
more mature scattered storms to have the potential to produce a
quick inch or greater in a short period of time. With this in
mind, ponding within low lying areas or the usual localized
trouble spots would be expected. Rain chances do shift south by
Sunday, becoming confined to areas south of the I-20 corridor.

By Monday, the upper ridge currently parked across the SE CONUS
will retrograde west and sit over the Four State Region,
influencing how the forecast evolves next week. Deterministic
support in both the ECMWF and GFS have been advertising a ridge
axis pushing into the upper 590`s come late Monday, leading into
Tuesday. With the ridge overhead, rain chances will quickly taper
off, with heat on the climb and highs approaching the triple
digits, with heat indices likely in Heat Advisory range once
more. Low end chances for showers and storms return to the far
eastern zones of the FA by mid-week as the center of the ridge
breaks down while another disturbance drifts along the Gulf coast,
and a front advances south out of the Upper Midwest.

KNAPP

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 549 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

For the 25/12z TAF period...VFR conditions across the TAF sites
at this hour. But, low cigs will move into portions of the region
this morning, bringing a few hours of reduced flight categories.
VFR conditions should return afterwards, but widespread convection
is expected to develop during the afternoon/early evening hours
in association with a disturbance off the coast of south
Louisiana. VFR conditions should return by late evening as the
convection is expected to diminish, followed by more low clouds
and reduced flight categories near daybreak tomorrow morning. /20/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Although spotter activation is not expected through this weekend,
thunderstorms with gusty winds and heavy rainfall cannot be ruled
out over the next days, mainly during the hours of peak afternoon
heating along and south of the Interstate 20 corridor.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79  93  77  96 /  20  60  10  10
MLU  76  94  75  97 /  20  60   0  10
DEQ  74  91  72  93 /  10  50  10  10
TXK  77  94  76  97 /  20  50  10  10
ELD  74  91  72  96 /  20  50  10  10
TYR  76  90  75  95 /  20  50   0  10
GGG  76  89  74  94 /  20  60   0  10
LFK  76  89  74  95 /  30  70   0  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...20